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Impact of climate change on rice yield in Sri Lanka: a crop modelling approach using Agriculture Production System Simulator (APSIM)

Authors:

R. K. Amarasingha ,

University of Peradeniya, LK
About R. K.
Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture (PGIA)
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L. D. B. Suriyagoda,

University of Peradeniya, LK
About L. D. B.
Sri Lanka Faculty of Agriculture
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B. Marambe,

University of Peradeniya, LK
About B.

 Sri Lanka Faculty of Agriculture

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L. W. Galagedara,

Memorial University-Grenfell Campus Canada, LK
About L. W.

Memorial University-Grenfell Campus
Canada

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R. Punyawardena

Department of Agriculture, LK
About R.
Natural Resources Management Centre
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Abstract

Climate change will have adverse effects on global food production. Potential reduction in crop productivity will be one of the biggest challenges. The objective of this study was to assess the yield fluctuation using Agriculture Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), based on climate change predictions given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) yields were simulated with increasing temperature, CO2 concentration and rainfall for three time periods; 2017 (current), 2050 and 2100. The simulations were run for medium (Bg359) and short (Bg300) duration rice varieties for 9 locations representing Wet Zone, Intermediate Zone and Dry Zone and for both Yala (March to September) and Maha (October to February) seasons. Simulation results revealed that the Wet Zone rice yield of Bg300 decreased in Maha season by 18% and 31% and the Dry Zone rice yield of Bg359 decreased in Yala season by 17%, and 42% for 2050 and 2100, respectively. Therefore, adaptation measures to overcome climate change-induced rice yield reduction in the future are essential to ensure the national food security.

How to Cite: Amarasingha, R.K., Suriyagoda, L.D.B., Marambe, B., Galagedara, L.W. and Punyawardena, R., 2018. Impact of climate change on rice yield in Sri Lanka: a crop modelling approach using Agriculture Production System Simulator (APSIM). Sri Lanka Journal of Food and Agriculture, 4(1), pp.21–26. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4038/sljfa.v4i1.54
Published on 23 Jul 2018.
Peer Reviewed

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